3. Travel Demand Forecasting

To facilitate the assessment of the future transportation infrastructure requirements, an assessment is required of the future transportation environment from both a supply (network capacity) and demand (travel demand/volume) perspective. The purpose of the demand-forecasting component of the study is as follows:

• Develop forecasts of future travel demands in the Study Area;
• Assess the ability of the existing network to accommodate future travel demands;
• Identify alternative transportation infrastructure improvements required to accommodate future demands; and
• Assess the ability of network alternatives to address the demand requirements.

The following sections describe the methodology and results from the demand forecasting process.

3.1 Methodology

In order to determine the future transportation needs of a community or area, it is necessary to understand the future levels of traffic demand on the transportation network. A forecasting model is typically used by larger urban municipal agencies as the basis for providing a quantitative assessment of the future travel demands. These models allow for the assessment of varying growth, transportation infrastructure and policy scenarios. Through a comprehensive set of algorithms and calculations, minimum time paths in a given network are calculated. The trips generated within the analysis area are automatically assigned to the network based on the shortest available time path with consideration for capacity and congestion on the network.

The City of Ottawa, in concert with other TRANS agencies, maintains a calibrated EMME/2 transportation model for the National Capital Region (NCR). TRANS is a joint technical committee on transportation systems planning in the NCR, consisting of representatives from regional, provincial and federal governments having jurisdiction in the NCR, including the two public transit operators. The TRANS model contains coded road and transit network infrastructure for both existing facilities and planned improvements to 2021. The transit network includes assumptions related to the type and frequency of service provided and facilitates estimation of transit trips in the network.

A summary of the TRANS model components follows:

• Region wide road and transit network -- City of Ottawa and Gatineau;
• All regular and peak period bus routes and rail transit service included in the network;
• 258 traffic zones in the network, including 15 gateways to the NCR;
• Demographics based on 2002 Official Plan in 5 year increments from 2001 to the 2021 horizon year;
• Travel demands for the p.m. peak hour conditions for auto vehicle and transit person trips and forecast to 2021 horizon year; and
• Travel demand for the 2021 horizon year reflects an average 30% transit mode share City-wide. This target was set as part of the 2003 Transportation Master Plan process and is the policy mode split for transit use in the long term.

3.1.1 Land Use

The assessment of future transportation needs begins with an understanding of growth and development trends. Growth in the City has occurred, and continues to occur, at high levels, increasing the demand for transportation services and infrastructure. Future transportation requirements on the regional and provincial facilities will depend largely on how, where and when future population and employment growth occurs.

For the travel demand forecasting work undertaken, population and employment forecasts to the year 2021 from the Official Plan were used. The population data and forecasts for 2001, 2011 and 2021 are summarized in Table 3.1. The corresponding employment forecasts are summarized in Table 3.2. Sub-Area maps are included as Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2. The population and employment forecasts are based on inventories of vacant residential and business park lands plus projected infill and development in built-up areas. Further information may be obtained from the City's Projections and Research Group.

Table 3.1 - Population Data and Forecasts

Sub-Area	2001 Census	2011 Projections	2021 Projections
Alta Vista	73,100	76,900	78,700
Bayshore	38,600	41,600	43,800
Beacon Hill	32,100	41,100	45,200
Cedarview	48,000	50,700	52,000
Central Area	6,500	11,000	12,450
East Urban Centre	88,300	116,200	130,500
Hunt Club	61,900	73,400	78,900
Inner Area	80,600	90,700	94,300
Leitrim	185	7,750	15,850
Merivale	72,100	77,600	79,900
Ottawa East	51,400	55,800	57,600
Ottawa West	38,400	42,400	44,800
Rural Northeast	11,450	13,850	16,800
Rural Northwest	20,800	26,750	31,800
Rural Southeast	21,100	27,450	31,800
Rural Southwest	24,050	29,700	34,700
South Urban Centre East	4,600	28,950	50,750
South Urban Centre West	41,400	87,700	105,200
Stittsville	15,950	26,700	29,250
West Urban Centre	60,000	118,700	157,100
City of Ottawa Total	790,535	1,044,950	1,191,400
Inside Greenbelt	502,700	561,200	587,650
Outside Greenbelt	210,435	386,000	488,650
Rural	77,400	97,750	115,100

Table 3.2 - Employment Data and Forecasts

Sub-Area	2001 Census	2011 Projections	2021 Projections
Alta Vista	55,241	64,621	68,312
Bayshore	15,891	20,679	22,653
Beacon Hill	17,398	22,414	24,175
Cedarview	18,844	25,811	28,538
Central Area	97,976	118,978	125,082
East Urban Centre	15,400	36,425	45,190
Hunt Club	25,229	34,097	37,625
Inner Area	51,309	62,848	66,627
Leitrim	2,709	4,720	6,832
Merivale	62,267	69,595	72,234
Ottawa East	24,800	29,725	31,413
Ottawa West	30,875	35,654	37,804
Rural Northeast	2,396	3,820	4,388
Rural Northwest	3,952	6,210	7,071
Rural Southeast	4,694	6,801	7,759
Rural Southwest	6,416	8,479	9,289
South Urban Centre East	384	7,318	14,650
South Urban Centre West	16,971	39,711	49,026
Stittsville	2,869	6,126	7,035
West Urban Centre	42,105	72,715	83,426
City of Ottawa Total	497,726	676,747	749,129
Inside Greenbelt	399,831	484,424	514,462
Outside Greenbelt	80,437	167,014	206,159
Rural	17,457	25,309	28,508

Figure 3.1 - Rural Sub-Areas (PDF - 281 KB)

Figure 3.2 - Sub-Areas (PDF - 666 KB)

3.1.2 Future Road Network

As part of the TMP exercise, the components of a long-term future transportation network within the City of Ottawa were identified. Based on this TMP information and through discussions with City and MTO staff, the following long-term network additions were considered most likely to be implemented within the 20-year time horizon of the Highway 417 study:

• Timm Drive extension, Moodie Drive to Baseline Road;
• Woodroffe Road extension to Prince of Wales Drive (formerly Prescott Highway);
• Leitrim Road extension including crossing of Rideau River;
• Preston Street, Parkway to Highway 417; new service road connection at Highway 417; connection to Wellington and Laurier;
• Nicholas Street extension from McDonald-Cartier Bridge south to Vanier Parkway, with full connections to Highway 417 (Alta Vista Transportation Corridor);
• Catherine Street and Chamberlain Avenue extensions across canal to Nicholas;
• Industrial Avenue connection to Nicholas Street;
• Hunt Club Road Extension to Baseline Road (with interchange at Highway 417);
• Russell Road extension;
• Blair Road connection to Baseline Road;
• Baseline Road extension to Blackburn Hamlet By-Pass;
• Orleans Boulevard extension to Navan Road; and
• Rockcliffe Parkway extension to Tenth Line.

Programmed widenings of existing facilities were also included in the long term road network. For the purposes of the Highway 417 Preliminary Design Study, potential improvements to Highway 417 and other freeway facilities in the Ottawa area were considered as alternatives to be evaluated rather than as probable improvements to be added to the future base road network. The full list of network improvement scenarios modelled with EMME/2 is detailed below:

• 2001 Horizon:
  • existing freeway and road network (Scenario 100)

• 2021 Horizon:
  • existing freeway and road network (Scenario 2100)
  • existing freeway configuration plus most likely road network improvements, as listed above (Scenario 2101)
  • Scenario 2101 plus an additional lane in each direction on Highway 417 throughout the Study Area (Scenario 2102)
  • Scenario 2102 plus Outer Transportation Corridor (Ottawa by-pass) (Scenario 2103);
  • Scenario 2103 plus two new inter-provincial bridge crossings, one east and one west (Scenario 2104)
  • Scenario 2102 above with two alternative modal split and vehicle occupancy scenarios (High/Low; Scenarios 2105, 2106)
  • Scenario 2101, with eight-lane Highway 417 between Highway 416 and Ottawa Road 174 and six-lane Highway 417 east of Ottawa Road 174 (Scenario 2111)

For purposes of INTEGRATION modelling and operations analysis of projected future conditions, results from EMME/2 Scenarios 100, and 2101, shown in bold above, were used as a basis for the traffic volume projections. See Section 4.3 for further details. These scenarios do not include improvements on Highway 417, and so are useful in identifying expected future operational issues under a "do nothing" scenario.

3.1.3 Screenlines

A series of screenlines was used to assess transportation conditions in the existing and horizon years at key locations within the analysis area. A screenline is an imaginary or real boundary across which travel demands and capacities are calculated. The screenlines which were used to analyze future travel demands in the Highway 417 Study Area are based on the City's model analysis screenlines and are listed in Table 3.3 and shown on Figure 3.3.

Table 3.3 - Strategic Screenlines for Travel Demand Analysis

Screenline Number - Name	Limits
LN 7 - Ramseyville	Russell Road to Baseline Road
LN 10 - Eagleson Road	Carling Avenue to Regional Road 38
LN 11 - Holly Acres Road	Carling Avenue to Richmond Road
LN 14 - Highway 417 East/Walkley Road	Walkley Road to Highway 417
LN 17 - Eastern Parkway	Rockcliffe Pkwy to Innes Road
LN 24 - Western Parkway North	Richmond Road to Iris Avenue
LN 25 - Western Parkway South	Baseline Road to Hunt Club Road
LN 26 - Merivale/Kirkwood	Ottawa River Parkway to Laperriere Avenue
LN 27 - CPR South	Beech to Colonel By Drive
LN 28 - CPR Queensway	Highway 417
LN 29 - CPR North	Ottawa River Pkwy to Gladstone Avenue

Figure 3.3 - Strategic Screenlines (PDF - 2,195 KB)

3.1.4 Model Validation

The TRANS model is a virtual representation of the transportation network in the City of Ottawa. To ensure that this representation is reasonably realistic, the 2001 p.m. peak hour volumes produced by the model were validated against observed 2001 p.m. peak hour volumes across the 12 noted screenlines. The results are summarized in Table 3.4.

While the model under-performed at the eastern boundaries of the Study Area at Walkley Road and at Anderson Road, it was generally found to be calibrated at a screenline level of detail within limits typical of regional travel demand forecasting models. It was concluded that the model could be used as a tool to forecast future traffic volumes, examine highway deficiencies and test a range of roadway improvement options with a reasonable degree of confidence.

3.2 Assessment of Results

3.2.1 Capacity

Capacities used in the strategic assessment are based on the per lane capacities coded in the TRANS model network. These capacities were developed for planning purposes by the City of Ottawa for various roadway types and functions in the National Capital Region. Criteria used in the development of the guidelines are as follows:

• roadway type - local; collector; arterial; parkway; freeway;
• area type - Central Business District (CBD); Urban; Rural;
• operation - 1 way; 2 way;
• presence of on street parking; and
• presence of traffic control - frequency of signals; at grade versus grade separated intersections; median.

Table 3.4 - Model Calibration Summary, 2001 p.m. Peak Hour

Screenline	Volume Type*	Inbound Observed	Inbound Modelled	Inbound Mod/Obs	Outbound Observed	Outbound Modelled	Outbound Mod/Obs
Ramseyville (LN 7)	Hwy. 417	700	397	0.57	2,100	1,162	0.57
Ramseyville	Screenline	1,081	1,072	0.99	3,018	2,414	0.81
Eagleson Rd. (LN 10)	Hwy. 417	2,700	3,019	1.17	3,500	3,559	1.02
Eagleson Rd.	Screenline	4,682	4,958	1.06	6,860	6,034	0.87
Holly Acres Rd. (LN 11)	Hwy. 417	4,000	3,563	0.89	3,500	3,610	1.03
Holly Acres Rd.	Screenline	6,643	5,520	0.83	5,975	5,661	0.94
417 East/Walkley Rd.(LN 14)	Hwy. 417	700	669	0.96	2,600	1,867	0.73
417 East/Walkley Rd.	Screenline	812	774	0.96	3,003	1,974	0.67
Eastern Parkway (LN 17)	Hwy. 417	4,000	3,796	1.04	5,650	5,965	1.04
Eastern Parkway	Screenline	8,883	9,939	1.12	12,572	15,697	1.21
Western Parkway North (LN 24)	Hwy. 417	5,530	5,041	0.91	5,960	6,092	1.02
Western Parkway North	Screenline	7,591	6,528	0.86	9,242	8,842	0.95
Western Parkway South (LN 25)	Hwy. 417	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Western Parkway South	Screenline	2,834	1,857	0.66	4,525	3,064	0.68
Merivale/Kirkwood (LN 26)	Hwy. 417	6,070	4,670	0.78	5,960	5,975	1.00
Merivale/Kirkwood	Screenline	N/A	8,354	N/A	N/A	10,114	N/A
CPR South (LN 27)	Hwy. 417	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CPR South	Screenline	2,744	2,101	0.77	3,270	3,111	0.97
CPR Queensway (LN 28)	Hwy. 417	5,870	6,164	1.04	6,220	7,054	1.13
CPR Queensway	Screenline	5,870	6,164	1.04	6,220	7,054	1.13
CPR North (LN 29)	Hwy. 417	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CPR North	Screenline	2,912	2,294	0.79	3,517	2,741	0.79
Rideau River Central (LN 32)	Hwy. 417	6,510	6,061	0.93	6,840	7,812	1.14
Rideau River Central	Screenline	6,510	6,061	0.93	6,840	7,812	1.14

* Highway 417 link volume or screenline total volume

Each of these criteria has an impact on the effective capacity of a roadway link. The impacts on specific links are dependant on several local factors such as cycle length and intersection Level of Service, which cannot be accounted for in the context of a system-wide, strategic model.

Highway 417 has been accounted for as a unique type of facility with guideline highway capacities increased or decreased according to the area type in which the facility is operating (basic freeway, ramp merge and diverge). Volume forecasts are generated by the model on the basis of a system wide assessment of the relative roles of specific facilities in the network. The assessment using the planning guideline capacities is considered to be consistent with the level of confidence associated with the resulting strategic forecasts.

3.2.2 Screenline Analysis

Based on the volume forecasts from the TRANS model, an assessment was made of the adequacy of the capacity of the road network to accommodate future demand. Volume-to-capacity (v/c) ratios were calculated for the Study Area screenlines.

Tables identifying the forecast volume and the estimated v/c ratio across each screenline for each modelled scenario are provided in Appendix B.

3.2.3 Facility Analysis

A capacity assessment was also prepared for the interchange to interchange sections of Highway 417 within the Study Area. Summaries of the sectional volume-to-capacity ratios on Highway 417 for each modelled scenario are provided in Appendix B.

3.2.4 System Performance

The addition of capacity across a screenline and/or on a specific facility may have further reaching benefits than just the additional localized capacity. The addition of capacity to a facility such as Highway 417 may attract traffic from competing corridors and parallel facilities to a degree that the expected increase in level-of-service on the improved facility does not occur. However, performance in terms of travel speeds and travel time on the overall network may show significant improvements.

The system performance characteristics of each alternative were assessed in terms of average system speed and percentage of roadways exceeding capacity, and summarized in tables provided in Appendix B.

3.2.5 Conclusions

The following conclusions have been drawn from the assessment of travel demand forecasting model outputs, provided above and in Appendix B:

• Under existing conditions, there are no capacity deficiencies with respect to strategic flows across the analysis screenlines.
• In the long term (2021), forecasted demands indicate screenline capacity deficiencies equivalent to the volume that could be accommodated by an additional freeway lane in the Highway 417 corridor from Highway 416 to Innes Road.
• The transit share targets outlined in the City's Transportation Master Plan do not eliminate capacity deficiencies on Highway 417 in the long term.
• The assessed alternative network improvements can be expected to produce the following results:
  • Providing additional lanes on Highway 417 would initially result in improved average travel times for freeway travellers. As a result of the improved freeway travel times, trips from City streets would be attracted to Highway 417 until the overall road network reaches a new equilibrium. As a result, travel time savings resulting from the additional lanes would be greater network-wide than on Highway 417.
  • The Outer Transportation Corridor (OTC) results in a reduction of ±200 vehicles in the peak hour on Highway 417. The OTC has more significant impact on the performance of the overall system than on Highway 417 specifically. Peak hour benefits to Highway 417 resulting from the OTC are not significant.
  • Additional bridge crossings of the Ottawa River also produce a peak hour volume decrease of ±200 vehicles on Highway 417, in the best case. Again, as more capacity is relieved on Highway 417, volume from parallel routes diverts to Highway 417. Additional bridge crossings have a more significant impact on the performance of the overall system than on Highway 417 specifically.

---

Contents | Summary | Introduction | Data Collection | Demand Forecasting | Traffic Volumes
INTEGRATION Modelling | Operations Analysis | Safety Review | Conclusions